India a 'raucous democracy' but 'true partner' of America

Thursday, 11 February 2010, 13:07
S E C R E T NEW DELHI 000287
SIPDIS
EO 12958 DECL: 02/10/2020
TAGS PREL, PTER, ECON, SENV, AF, PK, IN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL KERRY'S VISIT TO INDIA
Classified By: A/DCM Uzra Zeya. Reasons: 1.4(B, D).

Summary
In a wideranging brief before a visit by Senator John Kerry, US diplomats praise India's "raucous democracy" and Manmohan Singh's government and welcome new recognition of Indian responsibilites on climate change. Key passages highlighted in yellow.
1. (S) Summary: You will find an Indian government that is more committed than ever to building a durable and wide ranging USG-GOI relationship after Prime Minister Singh's Washington visit in November. New Delhi has been broadly supportive of USG goals in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. After refusing post-Mumbai to engage broadly with Pakistan until Islamabad took action against the attack perpetrators, New Delhi has now offered unconditional talks to Islamabad. This is a calculated risk on PM Singh's part given the political fallout over last summer's India-Pakistan joint statement at Sharm al Sheikh. On Afghanistan, there are underlying concerns that U.S. policy foreshadows an early exit from Afghanistan with negative security consequences for India. India has expressed concern about the outlines of the reintegration policy promoted by the Karzai government and supported by the United States. The GOI has begun to weigh a policy response that may include increased Afghan police and military training/assistance. They will be interested in your views on India's role in Afghanistan. Our bilateral Civil-Nuclear Agreement no longer dominates the headlines, but the goodwill it generated has contributed to our improved relationship across the board and to India's gradual movement toward the nonproliferation mainstream. Several Agreement implementation measures remain unresolved. The U.S.-India defense relationship is progressing rapidly, and defense sales could reach USD 4 billion in 2011. The U.S.-India economic relationship, for decades practically nonexistent, has grown quickly and U.S. exports to India have increased five-fold from USD 3.6 billion in 2000 to USD 17.7 billion last year. On climate change, the Copenhagen conference marked a fundamental shift in India's position, and India is beginning to understand it must address the climate issue not as a poor developing nation but rather as the major economy it has become. End Summary.

Pakistan

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2. (S) The Indians understand our message about the importance of resuming a robust dialogue with Pakistan and the necessity of increased GOI communication to reassure Pakistani officials about India's intentions in Afghanistan. India has now offered to hold Foreign Secretary-level talks with Pakistan, but has rejected Islamabad's attempts to condition resumption of discussion on picking up the thread from the Composite Dialogue India paused after Mumbai.

3. (C) PM Singh is taking a calculated political risk in pushing forward with an offer of talks with Pakistan. While there is a general recognition that the policy of not engaging with Pakistan except on counterterrorism issues has exhausted its usefulness, that does not necessarily translate into strong or consistent support for broad talks with Pakistan among the political class, given continuing terrorist threats. There are heavyweights in the Congress, including Finance Minister Mukherjee, who were not supportive after last year's Sharm al Sheikh Joint Statement fiasco, and they will seize on any missteps to argue against a policy that reaches out to the Pakistanis. This is also likely to be the last time for some time that PM Singh will have sufficient support to reach out to re-engage on dialogue. The PM took a beating after Sharm al Sheikh and his government's post-election honeymoon came to a crashing halt. If this renewed effort falters because of lack of interest on the part of the Pakistanis, many could point to newly appointed NSA Shiv Shankar Menon as the scapegoat. Menon was lambasted for his role as Foreign Secretary at Sharm and will equally be identified with this proposal.

Afghanistan

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4. (C) The reaction to the President's December 1 West Point speech announcing the way forward on Afghanistan drew guardedly positive support from most of our interlocutors. While the President's emphasis on development and agriculture assistance and a re-affirmation of USG commitment to the region drew approval, many were apprehensive about the setting of July 2011 as a beginning date for the transfer of U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. India's fears that its views and interests are not being taken into account has intensified lately: India was kept out of the Istanbul regional conference on Afghanistan (based on a Pakistani veto) and New Delhi was the odd man out at the London Conference over reintegration.

5. (U) India is proud of its own ongoing "development partnership" with post-Taliban Afghanistan that began in late 2001, and the GOI claims the sum of its performed and pledged assistance to date totals USD 1.3 billion. Civilian aid is channeled into three main areas: infrastructure development (centerpiece is a 218km road in Helmand); capacity building (scholarships and civil service training in India); and humanitarian assistance (daily food aid to 2 million Afghan school children). Virtually all GOI aid is administered through the Afghan government or NGOs.

6. (S) Indian support for Afghanistan's government is long-standing and motivated by a variety of reasons, not the least being Afghanistan's strategic value as New Delhi seeks regional influence. India, with the exception of the Taliban era, has always had strong ties to Afghanistan since Partition; conversely, Islamabad with the exception of the Taliban period, has had strained ties with Kabul. Pakistan's expectation that the government in Afghanistan will be pro-Pakistan and anti-Indian is unrealistic, particularly given Karzai's own long-standing ties to India and the goodwill that India's assistance and other elements of India's soft power have created in Afghanistan.

7. (S) While India's assistance to Afghanistan has primarily focused on reconstruction and stabilization, there has also been limited military aid. The MEA told us after the West Point speech that the GOI wishes to do more to help develop Afghan capacity, especially with regard to the police and military, but is also cognizant of USG "sensitivities" about such assistance. XXXXXXXXXXXX

Internal Politics: a Raucous Democracy

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8. (SBU) We have a true partner in the current Indian government led by Prime Minister Singh, but its capabilities are not without limits. The strong performance by the Congress Party and its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) allies in India's national elections in 2009 gave the Prime Minister Singh's coalition a mandate to govern and -- freed from dependence on half-hearted allies on the Left -- to promote a closer relationship with the United States. Despite the strong endorsement by the electorate and a floundering opposition, the UPA government has gotten off the blocks somewhat slowly. The government grew less confident after its honeymoon period was cut short by the fallout over a joint statement from Singh's July 2009 Sharm-el-Sheikh meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani. The Sharm debacle rallied Singh's otherwise disjointed political opponents, while reminding the Prime Minister of his constraints despite his mandate. The tentativeness of the government was again on display during the winter session of Parliament, during which an unruly opposition united over populist causes and sidelined civil nuclear liability legislation and long-awaited financial sector liberalization. The government is again on the defensive over demands for the creation of a separate state of Telangana from Andhra Pradesh. On February 3 it bowed to political pressure and announced the formation of a five-person Committee to evaluate the issue.

Civil Nuclear Cooperation

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9. (SBU) India viewed the signing of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement as an historic event and an essential part of transforming our relationship. India has since followed through on its nonproliferation commitments by signing its IAEA Safeguards Agreement and concluding an Additional Protocol with the IAEA. We are working with the government to implement commercial cooperation, providing U.S. firms access to an estimated USD 150 billion market and leading to the creation of thousands of high-skilled jobs, as well as providing India's growing economy with access to clean energy. The Agreement no longer dominates the headlines, but the goodwill it generated has contributed to our improved relationship across the board and to India's gradual movement toward the nonproliferation mainstream.

10. (SBU) The Indian government made substantial progress on implementing commercial cooperation ahead of PM Singh's visit to Washington, though some important hurdles remain. In recent months, India announced two favorable reactor park sites for U.S. firms in the states of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, and submitted its declaration of safeguarded facilities to the IAEA. We have held five rounds of reprocessing consultations pursuant to the 123 Agreement, and hope to conclude negotiations soon. The government responded to our request for Part 810 license assurances on the eve of Singh's visit, a top priority of U.S. industry, and we await clarification on two issues. The cabinet approved draft liability legislation, a top priority for U.S. firms, but Parliament was not able to pass the legislation in the just-concluded session.

The Defense Relationship

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11. (SBU) The U.S.-India defense relationship has progressed rapidly since sanctions were removed in 2000 following India's 1998 nuclear test. Today's relationship is focused on bilateral exercises, Subject Matter Expert Exchanges (SMEEs), and personal exchanges at schools, conferences and seminars. Billion-dollar defense sales are a growing component and a superb opportunity to expand the relationship. Exercises are the most visible of the activities between our two militaries. In October, the Army completed its most ambitious exercise with the deployment of 17 Strykers to India for a two week exercise which included live firing of a combined mechanized task force for the first time. Simultaneously, the Air Force had five transport aircraft participating in exercise COPE INDIA held in Agra that included a Special Forces component. The Navy conducts an annual exercise, Malabar, that has been conducted both bilaterally and multilaterally. The Marines hold an annual exercise with the Indian Army, Shatrujeet, which focuses on amphibious operations. The Indians have been cooperating with the Joint POW/MIA Accountability Command for recovery of remains from downed Second World War planes in the politically sensitive state of Arunachal Pradesh. To date, we are still working on obtaining permission to repatriate all of the remains so as to properly identify and recover lost Airmen.

12. (SBU) Defense sales are growing quickly from roughly one billion USD in 2008, to over two billion so far this year. There is good potential for over four billion in sales next year, especially with the recent Ministry of Defense approval to pursue the C-17. For the first time, India can afford (politically and financially) to purchase front line U.S. equipment. They recognize the quality of U.S. systems and have been astounded by the mission capable rates quoted for U.S. aircraft compared to their older Russian inventory. They are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their analysis of costs and now use life-cycle cost instead of cost on delivery for some purchases, giving U.S. products an opportunity to beat cheaply made competitors. Most important, the July 2009 agreement on End Use Monitoring (EUM) has opened the door for FMS sales at a time when there is growing frustration with Russia - previously India's supplier of choice. The near doubling in cost and extensive delays in delivery of the ex-Russian aircraft carrier GORSHKOV, issues with transfer of technology on the T-90 tank, and universal problems with spare parts have convinced the GOI that new sources of supply are needed to balance Russia. Given an opportunity, we ask that you endorse Indian purchases of U.S. equipment as an important part of our defense relationship and support our ongoing sales efforts.

Economic Ties

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13. (SBU) The U.S.-India economic relationship, for decades practically nonexistent, has grown rapidly and has significant potential to expand further. At the same time, India is an increasingly important player at the table in multilateral economic fora, from the WTO Doha Round negotiations and the G-20, World Bank and IMF to the UNFCCC negotiations in Copenhagen. While India was seen in the United States as a spoiler when the World Trade Organization Doha Development Agenda talks broke down in July 2008, India's new Commerce Minister showed leadership and significantly improved the tone of discussions when he hosted a Doha "Mini-ministerial" meeting in September, attended by U.S. Trade Representative Kirk.

14. (U) The United States is India's largest trading partner in goods and services and one of its largest foreign investors. Investment has surged between our countries in recent years, prompting agreement to launch negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty. U.S. exports to India has increased five-fold from USD 3.6 billion in 2000 to USD 17.7 billion last year. Two-way merchandise trade grew to a record USD 44.4 billion in 2008, a 76-percent increase from 2005. Reflecting the global economic downturn, exports to India fell 9.7 percent in January-September 2009 (to USD 8 billion), but Indian exports to the United States fell more sharply. Thus, the U.S. trade deficit with India fell 43.8 percent to just USD 3.2 billion in January-September 2009. Despite the size of its economy, India was only the United States' 18th largest trading partner in 2008. One of the major goals of the U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum is to resolve barriers to trade and investment to improve this ranking.

15. (U) India was somewhat shielded from the global economic downturn due to its conservative central bank and SEC-equivalent restricting many of the derivative innovations linked to the global financial crisis, and its relatively low reliance on exports. However, although India's "Wall Street" was less affected, its "Main Street" bore the brunt of the downturn, with slower growth, tighter access to credit, declining exports, higher unemployment, and less investment. In response, India's central bank and SEC-equivalent relaxed many of its restrictions on foreign capital inflows and investment procedures and the GOI enacted several fiscal stimulus programs, both pre- and post-election, to boost economic growth.

16. (SBU) The Indian economy continues to be one of fastest growing economies in the world, even as the global slowdown and financial crunch moderated GDP growth from nine percent in fiscal year (FY) 2007-08 to 6.7 percent in FY 2008-09, which ended March 31. Growth in the second quarter was 7.9 percent and growth in fiscal year 2009-10 is now expected to be in the seven percent range. The Commerce Ministry announced December 15 that it expects to see a return to positive export growth soon. With the expected return of higher growth rates, rising inflation, and the highest fiscal deficit (approximately 11 percent of GDP) in 20 years, the GOI has begun to reverse some the measures it enacted during the financial crisis and has announced plans to decrease subsidies and increase disinvestment. Lagging agricultural productivity and poor -- but improving -- infrastructure continue to constrain growth. Accordingly, the top Indian economic priorities remain physical and human infrastructure development and spreading economic benefits into rural India.

17. (U) The United States continues to have concerns about agricultural trade with India. The recently released Senate Finance Committee Report on Indian agricultural trade barriers -- a U.S. ITC investigation -- highlighted the essentially defensive agricultural trade policy long promoted by the Indian government. The United States is particularly interested in gaining marketing access for U.S. dairy products which are blocked due to a series of non-scientific GOI rules. Discussions are ongoing, but the effort to resolve long-standing agricultural trade issues is a Mission priority.

Climate Change/Clean Energy

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18. (SBU) The 16th Conference of Parties (COP-16) at Copenhagen marked a fundamental shift in India's climate change position. Minister of Environment and Forests Jairam Ramesh claimed victory for India's negotiating team in a December 22 address to parliament stating India was "entirely successful" at COP-16 in that there was no dilution of either the Bali Action Plan or the Kyoto Protocol, India was not required to agree on a peak year for its emissions, and that it avoided any legally binding emission commitments, including a long-term global goal of reducing emissions 50 percent by 2050. Although India's current position is that the Kyoto Protocol and Bali Action Plan are sacrosanct and must be the basis for all future climate negotiations, both Ramesh and Prime Minister Singh have publicly supported the Copenhagen Accord pursuant to the Accord, India communicated its domestic mitigation action of reducing it's carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent by 2020 from a 2005 baseline to the UNFCCC Secretariat on January 30. In addition, Ramesh has drawn India farther from the G77 by telling parliament India was not in the same category as other developing countries such as Bangladesh, Maldives, Grenada, or African nations, that it did not need to demand technology transfer at low or no cost, and that India should be selling green technology to the world. India's association and close coordination of its climate negotiating position with the Basic Group of nations, comprised of Brazil, South Africa, India, and China, indicates India is beginning to understand it must address the climate issue not as a poor developing nation but rather as the major economy it has become.

19. (SBU) During the November visit of the Prime Minister, Secretary Clinton and her Idian counterpart signed an MOU to Enhance Cooperation on Energy Security, Energy Efficiency, Clean Energy and Climate Change. Both countries share an interest in rapid expansion of clean and renewable energy production. India has massive investments planned in energy production, both conventional and renewable, as the government recognizes the need to continue to power India's economic growth and extend access to electricity to ever more of the significant portion of the population which still does not have it. The bilateral MOU calls for stepped up engagement beyond the existing Energy Dialogues to include a focused Clean Energy Research and Deployment Initiative to rapidly disseminate clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, hydro, as well as shale gas and cleaner coal. The USG is holding ongoing inter-agency consultations and is finalizing recommendations for the organization of these new initiatives. DOE has the lead on a Joint Clean Energy Research Center, while USAID is heading a multi-agency team to create the Clean Energy Deployment Center in coordination with State, Commerce, OPIC, EXIM, USTDA and others. Completed designs for the centers are expected by early spring. We expect that they will accelerate existing initiatives as well as launch numerous others in order to have broad impact in building the Indian clean energy market. ROEMER

Chidambaram the Beggar.

Date of Conversation :Friday, 26 February 2010, 06:33
Classification: :S E C R E T
Emabassy :NEW DELHI 000367

SUBJECT: FBI DIRECTOR MUELLER DISCUSSES HEADLEY CASE WITH
INDIAN HOME MINISTER CHIDAMBARAM
Classified By: Ambassador Tim Roemer. Reason: 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
In a meeting early in 2010, FBI director Robert Mueller and P Chidambaram, Indian Home Minister, discussed the case of David Headley, a Pakistani-American in US custody involved in the 2008 Mumbai bombings. Chidambaram said he suspected Headley had not acted alone. Mueller said Headley was giving the US "the best information for months" on Pakistan-based terrorist groups. Key passages highlighted in yellow.

Read related article
1. (S) Summary: In a February 23 meeting, FBI Director Robert Mueller told Indian Home Affairs Minister P. Chidambaram that the USG would continue to cooperate with the GOI in providing information on the David Headley case and other cases involving terrorism directed at India. Chidambaram requested direct access to Headley, even if such access produces no information, as well as access to Headley's spouse, who he said was in Chicago. Chidambaram asked whether a GOI official could monitor Headley's interrogation and submit questions "in real time." Chidambaram said he had "a feeling in my bones that Headley was not acting here alone," but conceded that he had no evidence to support his supposition that Headley formed sleeper cells in India, one of which may have been involved in the February 13 Pune bombing. Mueller assented to Chidambaram's request for expedited FBI lab assistance regarding forensic cyber and voice recognition analysis. Chidambaram complained that Pakistan had "done damn near nothing" to prosecute Mumbai terror suspects, and Mueller said he would press the Pakistanis to take action during an upcoming visit to Islamabad. End Summary.

2. (S) Director Mueller opened the 20-minute meeting by expressing satisfaction over increasingly close bilateral cooperation. Characterizing the information produced by interrogations of David Headley as among the most important intelligence the USG has gleaned in the past 6 - 8 months, the Director assured Chidambaram that we would continue to pass such information in a timely manner to India. Noting that the process of Headley's proffer of evidence is nearing a critical stage, Mueller observed that Headley has expressed hatred toward India and may "clam up" if his guilty plea is tied in any way to cooperation with the GOI.

3. (S) After thanking Mueller for the "outstanding cooperation" displayed by the USG, Chidambaram stated that he understood from his discussions with Attorney General Holder that the GOI cannot use any information provided by the USG at this time in Indian prosecutions. He noted, however, that GOI investigators had developed information on their own through examination of Headley's computer and emails. Chidambaram insisted that the GOI have access to Headley: "we must be able to say we had access, even if Headley did not speak." He also requested access to Headley's spouse, Shaiza, who he said is in Chicago so GOI investigators can question her on the meaning of her alleged message to Headley that she "saw your graduation." Director Mueller said he would look into both requests. In reply to Chidambaram's observation that the "worst outcome would be a light sentence of 2 or 3 years for Headley," Mueller stated that Headley is looking at a considerably longer sentence.

4. (S) Chidambaram informed Mueller that the GOI would soon send a number of Letters Rogatory to the USG in relation to the Headley case, and Mueller responded that we would welcome such documents. Returning to the issue of access to Headley, Chidambaram asked whether GOI personnel could monitor and pass questions "in real time" to USG personnel conducting Headley's interrogation. Mueller replied that he would look into this possibility. Chidambaram again thanked the USG for providing information and assistance, but asked whether GOI requests could be handled more promptly. The Home Minister asked for increased cooperation in three areas: 1) cybser security; 2) forensic cooperation; and 3) some financial initiatives and cooperation.

5. (S) Chidambaram confided that "I have a feeling in my bones that Headley was not acting alone" in India and expressed frustration over what he characterized as Headley's false claim that he had no accomplices in India. The Home Affairs Minister conceded he had no evidence to support his working hypothesis that Headley formed sleeper cells in India, one of which may have perpetrated the February 13 Pune bombing. He noted that the GOI would not file formal charges against Headley until the trial of Mumbai defendant Mir Kasab is finished for fear that Kasab would use the Headley charges as a way to delay conclusion of his own trial. Chidambaram complained that Pakistan had "done damn near nothing" to prosecute Mumbai-related terror suspects, but added that the GOI would present a list of terror suspects to Pakistani officials when the two sides meet for talks in New Delhi on February 25. Mueller said he was traveling to Pakistan and would press the Pakistanis for increased cooperation. ROEMER

The Enigma of Sonia Gandhi's Personality(2)

Tuesday, 06 November 2007, 13:18
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004881

SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE, GUJARAT ELECTIONS KEY TO GOI
APPROACH ON US-INDIA NUCLEAR DEAL


Summary
A landmark US-India nuclear pact is put to the test in the crucible of Indian domestic politics. Key passages highlighted in yellow.
1. (C) Summary: The upcoming winter session of Parliament in mid-November and Gujarat state assembly elections in mid-December will play a key role in shaping GOI actions on the US-India civil nuclear agreement. The respective positions of the Congress Party and the Left parties are likely to be fine-tuned in a series of inter-party and intra-party meetings in the days before Parliament begins debate on the agreement on or around November 19. The debate will be unpredictable but vigorous, with a great deal of high rhetoric and low tactics by all the parties. If the UPA emerges from the debate with no clear "sense of the House" against the deal, it will look for opportunities to move forward on discussions with the IAEA. Most observers believe that the Gujarat elections in mid-December will provide the true test of UPA government's approach on the agreement. If the Congress Party puts in a good performance in this BJP stronghold, it might feel politically strong enough to challenge the Left parties by moving forward with the IAEA on the safeguards agreement at the risk of (or even the desire for) early mid-term polls. However, Mrs. Gandhi never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity to show real leadership. While remaining publicly restrained and taking care not to be seen as interfering with domestic Indian politics, the Embassy will continue to meet with all political, business and civil society parties and interest groups to urge them to support the agreement. End Summary.

Timetable Ahead of Parliamentary Debate

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2. (U) With the first few days of the session devoted to housekeeping matters, Parliament is expected to take up serious business on November 19. This date is significant for Parliamentary debate on the US-India civil nuclear initiative because it follows closely four other meetings:

-- November 11-12: Meeting of Communist Party - Marxist politburo meeting;

-- November 16: Meeting of the UPA-Left coordination committee on the US-India civil nuclear agreement, unless that meeting is postponed;

-- November 16: Meeting of the Congress Working Committee, the highest decision-making body of the Congress Party; and

-- November 17: Meeting of the All India Congress Committee, the broadest and most representative body of the Congress Party.

Avoiding Monsoon Session Gridlock

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3. (C) The discussion and decisions taken at these meetings will feed directly into the Parliamentary debate that follows. In the monsoon session in August, boisterous disruptions by the Left parties and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the nuclear initiative paralyzed Parliamentary business. The UPA government is hoping to avoid a similar scene during the winter session because the principal players appear to have recently pulled back somewhat from the confrontational approach they held in August-October.

Positive Developments: Left Parties

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4. (C) The US-India civil nuclear initiative still faces an uphill road (Ref G) but there have been developments in recent days that bode well for the government, if not for quick completion of the nuclear deal. The Left parties, while continuing to reiterate their firm opposition to the civil nuclear agreement, have gone out of their way to reject the notion of early parliamentary elections. "There is no threat to the UPA government," Communist Party Marxist General Secretary Prakash Karat told reporters on October 30. Some see this as a glimmer of hope that the Left may not force the collapse of the UPA government if the Prime Minister moves forward on the IAEA safeguards agreement. This is reassuring to UPA allies such as Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party and Karunanidhi of the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham, all of whom, deathly afraid of early elections, pressured the UPA government to slow down progress on the agreement. The Left parties have also taken pains recently to be conciliatory towards the Prime Minister and his stand on the US-India agreement after having attacked him sharply during the last two months.

Positive Developments: BJP

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5. (C) The BJP, while it continues to speak with many conflicting voices, appears to have softened its opposition to the agreement, in part, due to the Ambassador's meetings with BJP leaders (Ref A, D, E). A party spokesman said on October 30 that the BJP will not insist, as it did during the monsoon session, that debate on the agreement be conducted under Parliamentary rules that require a vote, something the UPA government had refused to do. The BJP spokesman also noted that his party will drop its monsoon session demand for the establishment of a joint parliamentary committee to examine the agreement. Perhaps the most important BJP pronouncement on the issue was made by Leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani, who supported the call for a full Parliamentary debate but pointed out that the government is not constitutionally bound to accept the opinion of Parliament on this issue, rebuffing Karat's shrill insistence on an enhanced, more formal role for Parliament in Indian foreign policy formulation. .

Positive Developments: Congress

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6. (C) Since the October 12 reversal by Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister on the US-India agreement (Ref L), the Congress Party appears to be stiffening its back a little. The Prime Minister and the party have acknowledged a "delay in operationalizing" the agreement but have repeatedly reiterated their commitment to finalizing the deal. The Prime Minister made this observation after his October 30 meeting with German Chancellor Merkel. He assured Treasury Secretary Paulson on October 29 that the government was fully

SIPDIS committed to the agreement (Ref B) and were exploring various ways of getting it through the domestic obstacles. Speaking at a November 5 conference, he called critics of the nuclear initiative "myopic."

Unpredictable Debate

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7. (C) It is difficult to foretell how the Parliamentary debate over the agreement will turn out. The Left has been assiduously courting regional parties in recent days and several of these parties have expressed solidarity with the Left's position. Yet, the regional parties do not have strong ideological or policy positions on the agreement. What concerns them most is whether or not the deal leads to early elections. The BJP's confused stance has become even more muddled now with some leaders softening their positions but others not getting the memo. The BJP will sit down before the winter session to iron out its party line and make sure its Parliamentarians stick with it.

8. (C) Given that the Left parties are unlikely to relent from their opposition to the agreement, the best outcome for the UPA (and the deal) will be if the Left parties are isolated in the debate while the BJP expresses criticism, but remains uncommitted -- similar to the position taken by the Left in previous nuclear debates. The worst outcome would be

NEW DELHI 00004881 003 OF 003

if the Left, BJP and the regional parties corner the UPA and the "sense of the House" is clearly against the agreement. The most likely scenario is somewhere in the middle with a vigorous debate but both sides claiming victory. If this happens, the UPA government might plausibly take steps to move forward on the deal, if it can find the courage to do so.

Gujarat Elections Holds the Key

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9. (C) Embassy agrees with many observers who believe that if the Parliamentary debate is a draw, the Gujarat election result in December are crucial to whether Congress Party moves forward with the nuclear agreement. Gujarat is a large state, with 26 seats in Parliament. It is a prosperous state which is leading the Indian economic resurgence. It is also one of the most "saffron" states in the country. The BJP has won the last five state assembly elections. It crushed the Congress in 2002 in a lop-sided win in the aftermath of the 2002 riots. By most accounts, Narendra Modi, the poster boy of anti-Muslim Hindu nationalist ideology, has an edge to retain his Chief Minister position for a third straight time (Ref C and H). The state unit of the Congress Party is weak and poorly organized.

10. (C) If the Congress Party can put in a healthy performance to make a dent in this BJP bastion, observers believe the Congress Party will feel politically strong to risk (or even call) a mid-term national poll. In this case, the Prime Minister and the Congress Party would challenge the Left parties by moving forward with the IAEA on the safeguards agreement. It is because of the importance the Congress Party attaches to Gujarat that it is bringing in its top leaders to campaign in the state. Sonia Gandhi launched the campaign over the weekend in Anand, Gujarat. Rahul Gandhi is expected to campaign in the state. If, on the other hand, the Congress Party is trampled again in Gujarat and fails to improve on its 48 seats (out of 182 total seats in the assembly), it will feel vulnerable and will not be tempted to risk early elections. It will then require extraordinary political courage for the UPA to carry out the IAEA talks, which place its full term in office in jeopardy.

Comment: Golda Meir Would be Disgusted

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11. (C) The Congress Party, led by Sonia Gandhi, has proven especially cautious and nervous in the face of recent extortionist tactics by Prakash Karat. With two huge confrontations in its future -- Parliament and Gujarat -- it will remain true to its cautious form by seeking first to gauge its levels of support before finally being forced -- if absolutely needed -- to take action. With the future of Indian foreign credibility hanging in balance, Sonia Gandhi has been unable to show principled leadership even when it might benefit her party at the polls and reveal Prakash Karat to be the extortionist he is. Mrs. Gandhi never misses and opportunity to miss an opportunity. While remaining publicly restrained and taking care not to be seen as interfering with domestic Indian politics, the Embassy will continue to meet with all political, business and civil society organizations to urge them to support the agreement. We will continue to press the UPA government on the need for early completion of the safeguards agreement with the IAEA. And, we will continue our efforts to remind the BJP that the US-India civil nuclear agreement is their deal, too. WHITE

The Enigma of Sonia Gandhi's Personality

Dated :Friday, 04 August 2006
C O N F I D E N T I A L



Summary
Maria Shriver, wife of the governor of California and Sonia Gandhi, the most powerful person in India and the head of the ruling Congress party, have a one hour meeting to talk about "women's issues." For her visitors, Mrs Gandhi is warm, even effusive, admirable, informed far from her normal reserved self, her "italian" nature showing through. Reading between the lines reveals however that the warmth may not have been mutual. Key passages highlighted in yellow.
1. (C) Summary: In a relaxed August 3 conversation with California first lady Maria Shriver, Sonia Gandhi revealed a rare glimpse of herself. Usually withdrawn and reserved in public, she spoke at great length and radiated confidence on women's' issues and some aspects of her private life. Mrs. Gandhi demonstrated a strong commitment to a progressive left-of-center agenda aimed at combating socially conservative forces bent on oppressing Indian women. However, she was also realistic, revealing an in-depth knowledge of Indian culture, especially the rural/urban divide. At times suppressing her emotions, she spoke about the compulsions of political life, her parents' objections to her marriage to Rajiv Gandhi and the sacrifices she and her family have made. Her comments and demeanor put the lie to cocktail party suggestions that she courts Manmohan Singh's job. End Summary.

Two Dynasties Meet

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2. (C) Maria Shriver, California's first lady and wife of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, met with Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi on August 3 as part of her official visit to India. Shriver is in India to discuss her various initiatives on women's' affairs and to solicit Indian involvement. She is also laying the groundwork for a proposed trade mission led by Governor Schwarzenegger around February, 2007. After her stay in Delhi, she will go to Dharamshalla to meet the Dalai Lama. In addition to the Gandhi meeting, Shriver met with the head of the National Commission for Women and toured NGO's involved in women's' affairs. Mrs. Gandhi was accompanied by former Cabinet Minister Karan Singh.

Indian Women Bear a Heavy Burden

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3. (C) Shriver and Gandhi engaged in an over one hour exchange that was lively and open and covered many issues, both personal and political. Shriver explained that she was concerned with women's issues, including sexual abuse and exploitation and trafficking. Mrs. Gandhi replied that the situation for women in India is more troubling and traumatic than that in the US and other developed countries, as Indian women must deal with myriad problems not found in the west, such as child labor. In addition, most Indian women live in remote villages with severe "cultural compulsions" that work against women, making it difficult for the GOI to enforce the law. She pointed out that Indian women remain largely uneducated which is a "big problem" for Indian society and makes progress difficult. This compels the GOI to rely on television and radio to reach women with messages aimed at their concerns. Mrs. Gandhi noted that while she had a deep personal interest in women's' issues, she "only rarely" gave personal interviews aimed at female audiences.

And Sonia Bears a Personal Burden

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4. (C) Without prompting and at her own initiative Mrs. Gandhi then spoke at length about her personal life. She revealed that after her mother in law's murder Rajiv Gandhi was under intense pressure to take up the political mantle of the Gandhi family, but both Rajiv and Sonia were intensely

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personal and had no interest in politics. According to Mrs. Gandhi, she urged her husband repeatedly to avoid politics, but he insisted. After Rajiv Gandhi became Prime Minister, Sonia was determined to avoid the limelight and "kept in the background." She clarified that she accompanied her husband to official events, but refrained from making political statements. After her husband's assassination, Mrs. Gandhi withdrew, working only on a charitable foundation established in Rajiv's memory. In a candid revelation of her personal political stance, Mrs. Gandhi stated that "the right was becoming strong in India and Congress weak," tipping her hand and "compelling" her to enter politics to protect the Gandhi family legacy. She also revealed that her children were "not keen" about the idea, but eventually told her, "whatever you decide, we will back you."

Turning Down the PM Spot

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5. (C) Mrs. Gandhi was reluctant to provide details regarding her decision to turn down the Prime Minister post after the UPA's surprise 2004 electoral victory, stating that "I am often asked about this, but tell people that I will write a book someday with the whole story." She would only say that she "felt better" that someone else became PM and "did not regret" her decision. Shriver congratulated Mrs. Gandhi for her resoluteness and described her as "courageous." Clearly embarrassed by this adulation, Mrs. Gandhi made no response. She elaborated, at Karan Singh's insistence, saying that she was under lots of pressure, as the "party workers" were "very upset." They "could not understand" why she, as party President, was not taking up the post, since they had voted for her and won a majority.

Politics and Women

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6. (C) Shriver noted that she chairs a "Women's Conference" that brings 11,000 women to California to discuss relevant issues, and reinforced the point that "women can change the world." Shriver invited Mrs. Gandhi to attend next year. She pointed out that last year's keynote speaker was Sandra Day O'Connor, who spoke about balancing public and private life, and how she left the Supreme Court to look after her ailing husband and spend more time with her children. Shriver emphasized that Justice O'Connor also did not want to enter public life but was "pushed by her husband," and noted how difficult it is to be a wife and mother and play a public role. Mrs. Gandhi made no commitment to attend.

Indian Steps to Bring Justice

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7. (C) Mrs. Gandhi explained the steps that her UPA government had taken and planned to take to help women achieve greater social mobility and rights. She explained that the GOI had instituted a "Panchayati Raj" program under which major decisions regarding the economic development of villages are made by Panchayats (village councils). To ensure female participation, Rajiv Gandhi had "reserved" 33 percent of the positions on the Panchayats for women. Although there were "some complaints" that the women were "manipulated by their husbands," Mrs. Gandhi asserted that "research had confirmed that women will invariably take the right decisions." She noted that the UPA now wants to extend the same reservations to Parliament and the Legislative

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Assemblies. Mrs. Gandhi confirmed that currently the number of female MPs was "very small," as "some parties believe that women should not be in power."

The Indian Contradiction

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8. (C) Shriver pointed out that her trip had made her aware of the "great contradiction" between a society in which women occupied many leadership positions, including, at times, Prime Minister," but still were denied many basic rights. Mrs. Gandhi agreed with Shriver, noting that several Indian states had female Chief Ministers, and that an increasing numbers of Indian women are CEOs of major corporations, doctors, and scientists, and "we will keep fighting." She explained that the situation for women varied from state to state, and that South India was "more progressive" than the North for various historical and cultural reasons, and that, for example, the state of Kerala supplied nurses to much of the Middle East.

Possible Indian Collaboration

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9. (C) Praising the contribution of Indians and Indian-Americans to California, Shriver suggested that perhaps the GOI could help the state government combat its teacher and nursing shortage. She also noted that her family is very involved in the Special Olympics program and would like 500,000 participants for the Indian Special Olympics and hoped that Mrs. Gandhi would attend the events scheduled for November 6. Mrs. Shriver pointed out that those with intellectual disabilities were making great strides in the US, with many becoming self sufficient. This is necessary, she pointed out, "as we do not have the relevant institutions in the US." Mrs. Gandhi conceded that Indian government institutions for the intellectually disabled are "nothing to write home about," leaving parents and NGOs to deal with the problem, and that in rural areas, such children are "often hidden" and their disability "kept secret."

Slow Social Change

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10. (C) Mrs. Gandhi was not the least defensive about the gravity of India's social problems. When asked by Shriver about adoption, she noted that adoptions remained rare in India and most Indians continued to "see nothing wrong" in that. It is a "happy change," however, that more families are taking in orphans. She readily agreed with Shriver that many Indians still considered female children as "a problem" and preferred males and, as a result, more girls are abandoned than boys. Mrs. Gandhi reiterated that "education is the key to change" as much legislation is not enforced. This makes it necessary to "convince families and make them understand" to bring about positive change.

Personal Insights Into an Active Life

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11. (C) Mrs. Gandhi then provided personal insights into her life, saying that she travels constantly all over India, often to remote areas to visit the common people, as "it is only by going out and interacting with people that we are in a better position to understand their problems and determine what they want." She confided that there has been a big

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change in the Indian mindset regarding education. Earlier, parents were not very interested in ensuring their children were educated, while today, "99 percent want to send their children to school." Everywhere you go in India today, she noted, you see children in their uniforms heading for school, and this is "something that makes us happy." In addition to education, Indian parents want their children to have access to basic health care - "doctors and medicines," and some assurance that they will have a job after they complete their education. Mrs. Gandhi worried that there will be huge numbers of young Indians leaving school with no guarantee of finding a job.

Population Control Off the Screen

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12. (C) Mrs. Gandhi pointed out that "population control" is a political taboo in India after Indira Gandhi was voted out of office over this issue. Although she insisted allegations of forced vasectomies and other abuses were "highly exaggerated" and "politically motivated," the historical memory has forced the UPA to focus on raising awareness and providing basic health services and means that progress on reducing the birth rate will be "slow." Again, education will be the key, as demonstrated by the small family norm in urban areas.

Culture and Fighting AIDS

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13. (C) Karan Singh pointed out that population reduction and AIDS control are linked as it requires condom distribution to combat both problems. Mrs. Gandhi pointed out that Northeast India faces a severe AIDS problem, as it is a transshipment point for narcotics with a growing drug problem. Cultural factors also inhibit AIDS control, as the government "cannot be open" with condom distribution because of "certain mindsets." This compels the GOI to find an "appropriate way" to communicate with the population. Shriver responded that the US, as a multicultural society, faces many of the same problems, as men from some cultural backgrounds "don't want anything to do" with family planning and AIDS prevention. The key, she emphasized, was "empowering women to demand action on these issues."

India and the US

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14. (C) Shriver observed that there was "no anti-Americanism" in India and that Indians from diverse backgrounds, cultures and religions have successfully found ways to coexist. Mrs. Gandhi replied that Indians are "inherently tolerant" as they have co-existed for centuries. Karan Singh added that the "freedom movement of Mahatma Gandhi" also played a crucial role as it was inclusive, pluralistic and emphasized that multiplicity of Indian culture. Mrs. Gandhi jokingly pointed out that the "Indian Left is anti-American," but then agreed that its stance was aimed at "American policy" rather than the American people. Karan Singh emphasized that he and "most Indians" objected to many aspects of current American policy but held no brief against the American people. Mrs. Gandhi also pointed out that many Indian Muslims "resent certain policies of the US."

More Personal Revelations

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15. (C) Mrs. Gandhi revealed that her own parents objected to her marriage to Rajiv Gandhi and she "resented their position" and went ahead and married him anyway. She also noted that she felt that her gender has never been an issue in her political life and that Indira Gandhi also made the same observation. In Hinduism, "women are seen as goddesses and no puja (worship) can take place without them," while, ironically, oppression of women is common. She also revealed that common women in India's rural areas do not hold her in great awe and don't think of her as a great personality, as "their priorities are so different."

Comment: A Relaxed Gandhi Provides A Rare Personal Insight

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16. (C) Sonia Gandhi is often stiff and detached when in public. This was a more relaxed Sonia, possibly because she felt a personal rapport with Maria Shriver. In this more relaxed setting, Sonia Gandhi revealed a left of center political orientation which stresses the strong role of the government in ensuring social progress and her inherent opposition to the social conservatism of the Hindu right. At the same time, she entertained no illusions that she or the UPA will bring about rapid social change or uplift quickly India's oppressed women. Instead, she embraced an evolutionary and patient approach based on a broad knowledge of Indian culture and traditions. She was, for example, acutely aware of the vast divide between rural and urban India and the inherent difficulty of pushing entrenched villagers into the 21st century. Deeply hurt by personal tragedy, she has erected a strong and stoic persona to prevent public access to her personal space. Whenever she spoke of the deaths of her husband and mother-in-law, she struggled to keep her emotions in check. Despite her carefully erected Indian persona, her basic Italian personality is clearly evident in her mannerisms, speech and interests. She presents an intriguing enigma of a warm private personality that remains concealed and is available only to her closest confidants and family members.

17. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) PYATT